Group C entered the tournament looking lopsided with Brazil's 73% Kalshi group-win probability, but Morocco's 1-0 win over Scotland in Boston tilted the race for second. The third-placed team in Group C - most likely Scotland - has an 80.3% probability of making the best-eight cut for the Round of 32.
Where Group C stands now
Brazil and Morocco both lead on 4 points; Scotland have 3 from beating Haiti; Haiti are eliminated. The June 24 final matchday will sort everything.
| Pos | Team | Pts | GD | Played |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 4 | +3 | 1-1 Morocco, 3-0 Haiti |
| 2 | Morocco | 4 | +1 | 1-1 Brazil, 1-0 Scotland |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1-0 Haiti, 0-1 Morocco |
| 4 | Haiti | 0 | -4 | eliminated |
Matchday 3 (June 24): Scotland vs Brazil in Miami, Morocco vs Haiti in Atlanta.
Scotland's path to 3rd place
Scotland on 3 points can finish 3rd in two ways: draw or lose to Brazil while Morocco beats Haiti. That keeps Scotland on 3-4 points with a manageable goal difference, well-placed for the best-eight.
An upset Scotland win over Brazil flips the math entirely - Scotland would jump to 6 points and almost certainly clinch 2C, dropping Brazil into the best-third pool with a much weaker resume than Scotland's 6-point total.
R32 path: Match 85 vs Switzerland (or Canada)
FIFA's Annex C allocation places Group C's third-placer into Match 85 against the winner of Group B. With Switzerland and Canada both on 4 points after matchday 2, the head-to-head meeting on June 24 will decide 1B.
Projected R32 fixture: **Scotland vs Switzerland (or Canada) at BC Place, Vancouver, on Thursday July 2 at 8:00 PM PT (11:00 PM ET)**. Either opponent is winnable for Scotland; Switzerland's defensive setup has looked vulnerable against attacking sides (4-1 over a weak Bosnia hides issues), while Canada are still proving they can score against organised opposition.
What to watch
- •Scotland vs Brazil on June 24 - even a draw probably suffices for best-third.
- •Switzerland vs Canada on June 24 - sets Scotland's likely R32 opponent.
- •Morocco vs Haiti on June 24 - Morocco's GD swing matters for the 2C race.
Compare against other groups' 3rd-place scenarios on the best third-placed teams pillar.