Who Reaches the Round of 16?
The 16 teams our model projects to win their Round of 32 ties and advance. Each pick is the favourite from a Monte Carlo simulation, with its advance probability. Disagree with one? Flip it, and the projected Round of 16 bracket updates instantly.
The 16 projected qualifiers
Canada
83% to advance
Germany
96% to advance
Netherlands
68% to advance
Brazil
95% to advance
France
97% to advance
Norway
73% to advance
Mexico
58% to advance
England
97% to advance
United States
94% to advance
Belgium
82% to advance
Portugal
65% to advance
Spain
95% to advance
Switzerland
88% to advance
Argentina
97% to advance
Colombia
97% to advance
Australia
51% to advance
Round of 32: who we project to win
The model's favourite is highlighted in each tie. Disagree? Click the other team to send them through instead, and the projected Round of 16 below updates.
Projected Round of 16 matchups
Pairing the projected winners into the Round of 16 bracket (matches 89-96).
GermanyFranceCanadaNetherlandsBrazilNorwayMexicoEnglandPortugalSpainUnited StatesBelgiumArgentinaAustraliaSwitzerlandColombiaWant the full odds, title chances and survival heatmap? See the Round of 32 page. Pick the whole bracket on the same page.
These projections are favourites only, so upsets will happen. For each team's full odds of reaching the quarter-finals, semis and final, the title-odds chart, and the survival heatmap, head to the Round of 32 page.