Group D's race for 1st is over - the United States are home and dry on 6 points with a +5 goal difference after beating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0. The fight is now over 2nd (winner-up to USA in the R32 bracket) and 3rd (best-third lottery).
Where Group D stands now
| Pos | Team | Pts | GD | Played |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 6 | +5 | 4-1 PAR, 2-0 AUS |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 0 | 2-0 TUR, 0-2 USA |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | -2 | 1-4 USA, 1-0 TUR |
| 4 | Türkiye | 0 | -3 | 0-2 AUS, 0-1 PAR |
Matchday 3 (June 25): Türkiye vs USA in Los Angeles, Paraguay vs Australia in Santa Clara.
Likely 3rd-placer: Türkiye
Türkiye are bottom on 0 points and need wins from here. The realistic 3rd-place outcome: USA wins or draws Türkiye to lock 1D; Paraguay-Australia decides 2D (the winner clinches it). Türkiye finishes 3rd unless they win and Paraguay-Australia draws.
With a Türkiye win over USA (USA likely rotating with 1D secured) and Paraguay-Australia drawing, Türkiye reach 3 points and become a marginal best-third candidate. Realistic Football Meets Data probability for Group D's 3rd-placer making the best 8: 72.0%.
R32 path: Match 77 vs France
FIFA's Annex C allocation places Group D's third-placer into Match 77 against the winner of Group I - heavy favourite France.
Projected R32 fixture: **Türkiye vs France at AT&T Stadium, Dallas, on Tuesday June 30 at 1:00 PM CT (2:00 PM ET)**. A heavy draw for whoever finishes 3rd in Group D - France are a Kalshi 66% to win Group I outright, and even if Norway surprises (currently leading I on GD), the opponent is still elite.
What to watch
- •Türkiye vs USA on June 25 - Türkiye must win to stay alive.
- •Paraguay vs Australia on June 25 - winner takes 2D, loser drops to best-third pool.
- •Group I final standings - the eventual opponent (France/Norway/Senegal) defines difficulty.
More: the best third-placed teams pillar.