Germany's 7-1 demolition of Curaçao on opening day set the tone for Group E. With Ivory Coast taking three points off Ecuador, the third-place picture is wide open and the best-third qualification probability for Group E's 3rd-placer is 74.4% per Football Meets Data.
Where Group E stands now
| Pos | Team | Pts | GD | Played |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | +6 | 7-1 vs Curaçao |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | +1 | 1-0 vs Ecuador |
| 3 | Ecuador | 0 | -1 | 0-1 vs Ivory Coast |
| 4 | Curaçao | 0 | -6 | 1-7 vs Germany |
Matchday 2 (June 20): Germany vs Ivory Coast in Toronto, Ecuador vs Curaçao in Kansas City. Matchday 3 (June 25): Ecuador vs Germany in New York/New Jersey, Curaçao vs Ivory Coast in Philadelphia.
Likely 3rd-placer: Ecuador (most likely) or Ivory Coast
Ecuador's 3rd-place path: beat Curaçao on matchday 2 (heavy favourite), then put up a fight against Germany on matchday 3. That gets them to 3-4 points. If Ivory Coast also beat Germany or earn a draw, Ecuador finishes 3rd. If Germany sweep and Ecuador only beat Curaçao, Ecuador are 3rd on roughly 3 pts.
Curaçao are essentially eliminated barring two upset wins, given their -6 goal-difference starting point.
R32 path: Match 80 vs England
FIFA's Annex C allocation places Group E's third-placer into Match 80 against the winner of Group L. England are the heavy favourite for L1.
Projected R32 fixture: **Ecuador vs England at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, on Wednesday July 1 at 12:00 PM ET**. England's group form has been mixed (4-2 over Croatia in the opener); Ecuador are a defensively-set side capable of frustrating bigger names.
What to watch
- •Ecuador vs Curaçao on June 20 - effectively must-win for Ecuador's R32 hopes.
- •Germany vs Ivory Coast on June 20 - decides 1E.
- •Curaçao vs Ivory Coast on June 25 - if Ivory Coast slip, they could be the 3rd-placer instead.
Bigger picture on the best third-placed teams pillar.