Norway's emphatic 4-1 win over Iraq put the surprise side level on points with France in Group I. The 3rd-place slot is most likely Senegal's after their 1-3 loss to France - and Football Meets Data gives Group I's 3rd-placer a 70.6% chance of best-third qualification.
Where Group I stands now
| Pos | Team | Pts | GD | Played |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | +2 | 3-1 vs Senegal |
| 2 | Norway | 3 | +3 | 4-1 vs Iraq |
| 3 | Senegal | 0 | -2 | 1-3 vs France |
| 4 | Iraq | 0 | -3 | 1-4 vs Norway |
Matchday 2 (June 20): Norway vs France in Boston, Senegal vs Iraq in Toronto. Matchday 3 (June 26): Norway vs France switched, Senegal vs Iraq becomes second matchday 3.
Senegal's path to 3rd
Senegal beat Iraq on matchday 2 (heavy favourite), then play their final group game looking for a win against whoever has worse standings. That gets Senegal to 3-6 points. Norway's GD edge is a problem if both finish on 6 points - currently +3 vs Senegal who would max at +1 or +2.
Most likely outcome: France 1st, Norway 2nd (slight GD edge over Senegal), Senegal 3rd on 6 points. That total would make Senegal one of the best-positioned third-placers in the tournament.
R32 path: Match 79 vs Mexico
FIFA's Annex C allocation places Group I's third-placer into Match 79 against the winner of Group A. Mexico are essentially locked as 1A on 6 points.
Projected R32 fixture: **Senegal vs Mexico at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, on Tuesday June 30 at 7:00 PM CT (8:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CT)**. Mexico's home advantage at Azteca is massive but Senegal have shown they can compete with elite opposition (they beat France in friendly form runs over the years).
What to watch
- •Senegal vs Iraq on June 20 - must-win for Senegal.
- •Norway vs France on June 20 - winner clinches 1I.
- •Final matchday 3 - Norway's GD vs Senegal's GD will decide 2I if they're tied on points.
More analysis on the best third-placed teams pillar.