Analysis··4 min read

Group L Round of 32 Scenarios: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

Croatia's heavy 4-2 loss to England puts them in danger. Group L's third-placer has a R32 path to Santa Clara and a likely meeting with Belgium.

My World Cup Guide editorial

We track FIFA's official schedule, results and visitor info for the 2026 World Cup across the USA, Canada, and Mexico.

Group L looked competitive on paper - then England put 4 past Croatia in their opener. Ghana's 1-0 over Panama makes for a tight race for 2nd and 3rd. Group L's 3rd-placer has a 67.9% chance of best-third qualification per Football Meets Data.

Where Group L stands now

PosTeamPtsGDPlayed
1England3+24-2 vs Croatia
2Ghana3+11-0 vs Panama
3Croatia0-22-4 vs England
4Panama0-10-1 vs Ghana
Group L standings after Matchday 1.

Matchday 2 (June 23): England vs Ghana in Boston, Panama vs Croatia in Toronto. Matchday 3 (June 27): Panama vs England in New York/New Jersey, Croatia vs Ghana in Philadelphia.

Croatia's path to 3rd

Croatia must win their last two matches to climb out of the eliminated zone. Panama on matchday 2 is winnable; Ghana on matchday 3 is the bigger test. With 6 points Croatia would be a strong best-third candidate (lowest FIFA rank among likely qualifiers at #11).

If Croatia draw with Panama, they're realistically eliminated. If they lose, certainly eliminated. Panama-Croatia on June 23 is therefore the make-or-break for Croatia's tournament.

R32 path: Match 82 vs Belgium

FIFA's Annex C allocation places Group L's third-placer into Match 82 against the winner of Group G - heavy favourite Belgium.

Projected R32 fixture: **Croatia vs Belgium at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, on Wednesday July 1 at 8:00 PM PT (11:00 PM ET)**. A heavyweight tie - both teams have made deep runs at recent World Cups; Croatia were finalists in 2018 and 3rd in 2022 while Belgium have the talent that fell short in Qatar.

What to watch

  • Panama vs Croatia on June 23 - Croatia must win or they're out.
  • England vs Ghana on June 23 - Ghana can clinch 2L with a result.
  • Belgium's final group form - sets the R32 difficulty for Croatia.

More on the best third-placed teams pillar.

More from the blog